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For a brief period, Trump appeared to adopt a firm position on the Ukrainian conflict. After issuing threats of "serious repercussions" last August in case Russia's president carried on obstructing ceasefire talks, Trump ultimately imposed major restrictions on Russia's biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move seriously hindered Putin's ability to fund his aggression in Ukraine.

But, with his recently unveiled detailed peace initiative for the conflict, reportedly developed by American and Russian diplomats excluding Ukraine's or European participation, he has apparently returned to his favorable to Russia stance.

Benefiting Invasion

Trump's initiative would in practice favor the Russian leader for attacking Ukraine while leaving the country's democratic system in danger. Although ringing proclamations that "The nation's autonomy will be affirmed", much of the initiative actually compromise that essential independence. Seen as a Kremlin dream would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his corporate past, the former president persists to consider the situation in Ukraine as a simple territorial dispute, like giving Russia a section of Ukraine's territory will appease the ruler. Yet, Russia's invasion is not only about dominating a charred region of economically weakened land in Ukraine's east. It is about the nation's democracy – and Putin's apparent intention to weaken it so it ceases to functions as an attractive model for the Russian people of the accountable leadership that Putin's growing dictatorship prevents them.

Land Giveaways

While freezing in status the already split Ukrainian provinces of these areas, the proposal would require the nation to give up the entire this eastern territory. Beyond benefiting the Russian Federation with area that its military have been unsuccessful to seize in more than a decade of warfare, this giveaway would leave Ukrainian defenses severely compromised.

Donetsk is the location of Ukraine's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the well-established military defenses that constitute a key impediment to invading forces. Trump would have Ukraine abandon these defenses, giving Putin a unobstructed path to the capital should he eventually opt to restart the hostilities.

Military Restrictions

Additionally, in a move that would make renewed fighting simpler for the Russian military, the plan would mandate Ukraine to cut the size of its military from their present 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a cap of this lower number. Importantly, Trump's proposal sets no equivalent restrictions on the invading army.

Seemingly as a accommodation to Putin's attempts to portray the nation's chosen by the people administration as radicals, the proposal states: "Any Nazi ideology and practices must be condemned and forbidden." Apparently to underscore this point, it demands that "The nation will hold elections in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, the proposal places no obligation that the Russian leader risk his dictatorship by allowing votes in his own country.

Protection Guarantees

Certainly, the initiative has the Russian Federation commit not to "invade other states" and to "incorporate in law its policy of non-violence towards Europe and Ukraine". However considering that Putin has breached similar treaties in the previous instances – for example the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government promised to respect the nation's sovereignty in exchange for relinquishing its Soviet-era nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow agreed to a halt in fighting and a return of seized areas in the region to the government – why should we have confidence in this commitment this time?

For this reason Ukraine has been so adamant on external defense commitments. While the plan warns of a "decisive unified military response" if Russia renew its military campaign, and provides that "The nation will receive dependable security guarantees", the details include fuzzy to alarming. The proposal would not just block Ukraine alliance membership but also prevent alliance nations from positioning troops on the nation's land, thus preventing the security presence, reportedly commanded by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to deter Russia from replenishing his reduced military, rearming, and reinvading.

Global Concern

Another side agreement according to sources would grant the nation with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any later "serious, deliberate, and ongoing aggression" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "would be considered as an act of war endangering the peace and security of the allied countries." That suggests a military response. But different from a capable national defense – the nation's best protection against future Russian aggression – the success of the supplementary deal would depend on the commitment of Nato leaders, including the US administration, to react through arms to Russia's aggression, something they have {not