‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: Hostilities on Iran Squeezes India's Cooking-Gas Supplies.

The repercussions of a conflict being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now reaching India's households.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran hinder energy transports through the vital shipping lane, supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are dwindling across India, forcing restaurants to cut menus, reduce operating times and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing crowds outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian cities and towns as concerns over fuel supplies spread. Businesses appear the most affected: the biggest crunch is in commercial eateries.

"The situation is dire. Cooking gas simply is unavailable," says a official of the a major restaurant body.

Most eateries run either on commercial LPG cylinders or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the lack of supply are now being noticed across the country. "Numerous restaurants have shut down - some in northern India, many in the southern states. People are adopting coal and wood and electric cookers to keep their operations going."

Regional Impact

In Mumbai, local news say up to a significant portion of hospitality businesses are already fully or partly shut as commercial LPG supplies dwindle. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some establishments say their cylinder inventory have dwindled with minimal reserves. "We can only make coffee and nothing else - it is truly dismal. Businesses are going to suffer," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant managers are seeking alternatives. "Menus are being curtailed, some are skipping midday meals and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that closures are varying as supplies come and go. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers report a increase in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are running out of them.

Authority's View

Yet, the government insists there is sufficient stock.

India has more than 30 crore home fuel subscribers and officials say stocks are being reallocated to households as geopolitical strain from the regional hostilities impact energy markets.

Roughly a majority of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about nine out of ten of those consignments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital passage now significantly disrupted by the war.

The relevant department says that it directed refineries to boost LPG output for household consumption, raising domestic production by about a significant margin. Business-grade fuel is being prioritised for essential sectors such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Unnecessary hoarding and accumulation has been sparked by false reports. The normal delivery cycle for home fuel remains about two-and-a-half days," says a ministry representative.

Growing Panic

Now the worry is spreading beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of scooters outside a gas outlet. "Anxiety is palpable," the description reads.

According to reports from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be premature.

India imports 90% of its crude oil. Around 50% of its crude oil imports - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the gap could be partly made up by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on shipping data and industry information, additional Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, reducing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The key weakness is LPG, experts note.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the Strait.

Refineries can tweak operations to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only increase domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be partially mitigated through diversification. Fuel availability remains fairly adequate. LPG availability is the critical issue to track in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the anxiety on the ground is not just limited availability but patchy deliveries - and the usual problem of panic buying.

An industry representative states opportunistic profiteering.

"Retailers are taking advantage of the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be protected by global trade flows. But in restaurants across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next gas canister.